Towards the end of 2008, Dave Linthicum issued his predictions for the year ahead in service oriented architecture. They are summarised below:
- The interest in cloud computing (or WOA, Web 2.0, or insert current Webby buzzword here) will drive many enterprises toward SOA
- The explosion in PaaS (platform as a service) will leave many enterprise architects and CIOs scratching their heads
- The economy will recover, but most enterprises out there will focus on cost reduction
- There will be a larger focus on inter-domain SOA technology
- Jig will be up for poor SOA governance solutions out there
- Most failed SOA projects will be traced to unqualified SOA architects
- SOA the buzzword will become a bit less relevant and will begin to morph with concepts, such as enterprise architecture and cloud computing
So where are we?
Forrester has conducted a survey and published a report in which they found that while the global economy is in a trough, 75% of IT executives and technology decision-makers at Global 2000 organisations said they will be using SOA by the end of 2009. Of the more than 2000 IT executives surveyed, only one percent of current SOA adopters say they have received little or no benefit from the methodology, sixty percent said they have seen some benefits.
60% of current SOA users are expanding their use of SOA and it appears there been very few disappointments with a service-oriented approach. About 24% of current SOA users say that it has “delivered most or all of the benefits they expected,” and 36% say that it has “delivered enough of what they expected to justify expanding their SOA adoption.”
This seems to indicate that SOA has moved well beyond the hype phase. This and other research seems to be finding that SOA is beginning to be a part of IT, which is where you would expect to find it. The expansion of SOA into the heart of an organisations architecture will be largely organic in the short term and it will start to become just something you do as a best practice.
Service-Oriented Architecture (SOA) will cross the chasm in 2009 to gain broad-based acceptance. It will be replaced by Business Process Management (BPM), as the need to drive operational efficiency replaces technology richness.
The waterfall method will quickly join the ranks of legacy methods, and agile will be the word of the day. By mid-year, every third sentence from IT will contain these two words: cloud computing.